Climate Change Threatens Two-Thirds of U.S. National Parks with Transformative Impacts

A groundbreaking study published in Conservation Letters has revealed that climate change poses an unprecedented threat to America’s National Parks, with 174 parks—representing 67% of the system—facing potentially transformative impacts from multiple climate stressors. This multidimensional analysis provides the first comprehensive assessment of how climate change is reshaping these protected landscapes that millions of visitors experience annually.

Understanding the Research

The research team, led by Dr. Anna Michalak, conducted a multidimensional vulnerability assessment examining how climate change interacts with existing park stressors and surrounding land use patterns. Unlike previous studies that focused on single climate impacts, this analysis considered the cumulative effects of multiple climate stressors including fire, drought, sea-level rise, and forest pests and diseases.

The study’s timing is particularly significant given that access to climate change information for park visitors has been restricted by recent executive branch actions, making scientific research like this even more crucial for public understanding of climate impacts on protected areas.

Key Findings and Results

The research identified several critical patterns of climate vulnerability across the National Park system:

• Geographic Patterns: Parks in the Midwest and eastern United States show the highest cumulative vulnerability due to high physical exposures, exacerbation of existing stressors, and intensive surrounding land-use
• Western Parks: While showing lower cumulative vulnerability due to less intense land use and topographic features that may provide climatic refugia, western parks tend to be most exposed to multiple transformative impacts
• Multiple Stressors: The interaction between climate change and existing park stressors creates compound vulnerabilities that exceed the sum of individual impacts
• Irreversible Changes: Many parks face potentially irreversible ecological changes to the landscapes and resources they were established to preserve

Methodology and Approach

The researchers employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework that evaluated three key dimensions:

Exposure Assessment

The team analyzed physical climate exposures including temperature increases, precipitation changes, extreme weather events, and sea-level rise projections for coastal parks.

Sensitivity Analysis

Each park’s ecological sensitivity was evaluated based on species composition, ecosystem types, and existing stressors that could be amplified by climate change.

Adaptive Capacity Evaluation

The study considered factors that enhance or limit parks’ ability to adapt, including surrounding land use intensity, connectivity to other protected areas, and management flexibility.

Implications for Park Management

The findings have profound implications for how the National Park Service approaches climate adaptation:

1. Coordinated Planning: The widespread, diverse threats highlighted in the study emphasize the need for coordinated evaluation of vulnerabilities from multiple perspectives
2. Transformational Planning: Park managers must evaluate and plan for potentially irreversible ecological changes rather than assuming historical conditions can be maintained
3. Resource Allocation: The identification of highest-risk parks can guide targeted allocation of limited adaptation resources
4. Visitor Experience: Climate impacts will fundamentally alter the visitor experience in many parks, requiring new approaches to interpretation and education

Regional Variations and Hotspots

The research revealed distinct regional patterns of vulnerability:

Midwest and Eastern Parks

These parks face the highest cumulative vulnerability due to the combination of significant climate exposures, existing ecological stressors from intensive surrounding land use, and limited topographic diversity that could provide refugia.

Western Parks

While generally showing lower cumulative vulnerability, western parks face unique challenges from multiple simultaneous climate impacts, particularly increased fire risk, drought stress, and forest pest outbreaks.

Coastal Parks

Sea-level rise emerges as a critical threat, with many coastal parks facing the permanent loss of key features and habitats they were established to protect.

What This Means for Conservation

The study’s findings represent a fundamental shift in how we must approach conservation in the Anthropocene era. Traditional preservation approaches that seek to maintain historical conditions are increasingly untenable in the face of rapid climate change. Instead, the research suggests that park managers must embrace adaptive management approaches that:

• Anticipate and plan for ecological transformation rather than resistance
• Focus on maintaining ecological function rather than specific species compositions
• Coordinate across park boundaries to maintain landscape-scale connectivity
• Engage visitors in understanding climate change as a fundamental driver of park changes

Future Directions and Research Needs

While this study provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate vulnerability in U.S. National Parks, the authors identify several areas needing further research:

Additional monitoring is needed to track how vulnerability patterns change over time and validate the study’s projections. Research should also examine the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies in reducing park vulnerability while maintaining conservation values.

The study also highlights the need for research on how climate-driven changes in park ecosystems affect the human communities that depend on them for ecosystem services, recreation, and cultural values.

Conclusion

This comprehensive assessment of climate vulnerability in U.S. National Parks provides a sobering but necessary foundation for adaptation planning in one of America’s most cherished institutions. With 67% of parks facing potentially transformative climate impacts, the research underscores that climate change is not a distant threat but a current reality reshaping protected landscapes nationwide.

The geographic patterns identified in the study—highest cumulative vulnerability in Midwest and eastern parks, highest exposure to multiple impacts in western parks—provide crucial guidance for prioritizing adaptation efforts. Perhaps most importantly, the research makes clear that successful adaptation will require fundamental changes in how we approach conservation, moving from preservation of historical conditions to management for ecological function in a rapidly changing climate.

As climate change accelerates, studies like this become increasingly vital for understanding and responding to the transformation of protected areas. The research provides both a warning and a roadmap for ensuring that National Parks can continue to fulfill their mission of preserving natural and cultural resources for future generations, even as the climate changes around them.

References

Michalak, A., et al. (2026). “Relative Vulnerability of US National Parks to Cumulative and Transformational Climate Impacts.” Conservation Letters. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/con4.70020

Original source: Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9 2026